Market outlook
Sample data dashboard.
Model allocations by risk profile, historical asset class returns, and the inflation versus policy rate series, updated each quarter by our investment committee.
Model allocations by risk profile
Each profile sets a target weight per asset class, with documented expected return and volatility assumptions.
Conservative
Return 4.6% · Vol 5.8%- Global equity 20.0%
- Global fixed income 50.0%
- Real assets 10.0%
- Alternatives 5.0%
- Cash and equivalents 15.0%
Balanced
Return 6.1% · Vol 9.2%- Global equity 45.0%
- Global fixed income 30.0%
- Real assets 12.0%
- Alternatives 8.0%
- Cash and equivalents 5.0%
Growth
Return 7.1% · Vol 12.1%- Global equity 62.0%
- Global fixed income 18.0%
- Real assets 10.0%
- Alternatives 8.0%
- Cash and equivalents 2.0%
Equity tilt
Return 7.6% · Vol 14.8%- Global equity 78.0%
- Global fixed income 8.0%
- Real assets 6.0%
- Alternatives 6.0%
- Cash and equivalents 2.0%
Historical asset class returns
Annual calendar returns for the past ten years. Use the legend to isolate a series; use the range buttons to narrow the window.
Show data table
| Year | Equity | Fixed income | Real assets | Alts | Cash |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2015 | 4.4% | 1.3% | -2.8% | 5.1% | 0.1% |
| 2016 | 8.2% | 2.7% | 6.1% | 4.4% | 0.3% |
| 2017 | 11.8% | 3.5% | 5.2% | 6.3% | 0.8% |
| 2018 | -8.7% | 0.1% | -4.1% | -3.2% | 1.9% |
| 2019 | 27.6% | 6.9% | 10.8% | 7.2% | 2.3% |
| 2020 | 16.6% | 7.2% | -5.8% | 5.8% | 0.5% |
| 2021 | 18.7% | -1.5% | 22.1% | 14.3% | 0.1% |
| 2022 | -18.1% | -13.1% | 5.1% | 5.2% | 1.5% |
| 2023 | 22.1% | 5.8% | 6.2% | 6.8% | 4.8% |
| 2024 | 18.4% | 3.1% | 4.4% | 7.1% | 4.6% |
Inflation versus policy rate
The same period, showing the relationship between headline inflation and the policy rate.
Asset class assumptions
The expected return, volatility, and yield assumptions used in the calculator and the model portfolios.
| Asset class | Expected return | Volatility | Income yield |
|---|---|---|---|
| Global equity | 7.2% | 16.5% | 1.8% |
| Global fixed income | 3.8% | 6.1% | 4.2% |
| Real assets | 6.1% | 12.2% | 4.4% |
| Alternatives | 8.2% | 21.8% | 5.0% |
| Cash and equivalents | 2.8% | 0.9% | 4.6% |
Model figures from our capital market assumptions. For information only; not investment advice. Past performance is not a reliable guide to future returns.